Apple Inc’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) new iPhone 18 Pro lineup saw increased lead times in its second week of orders and now broadly matches those seen for the 17 series, JP Morgan said in a Sunday note.
Average lead times for the iPhone 18 Pro increased to 23 days in week two from seven days in week one, and rose to 30 days from 19 days for the iPhone 18 Pro Max, JPM said. Lead times in Germany, the UK, and the U.S. were now largely in line with the iPhone 17 series.
China remained the only major market where lead times remained below the prior year, although this gap was seen narrowing for the Pro. The country accounts for roughly 19% of iPhone shipments, while the U.S. represents about 34% of total shipments.
JPM noted that the new foldable iPhone Duo isn’t open for preorders until October 16.
The rise in lead times compares with increases of 9 days for the 17 Pro and 7 days for the 17 Pro Max from Week one to Week two last year, JPM said.
“Although this implies the current pace of demand over the last few days for the Pro lineup is exceeding the prior year cycle, with iPhone Duo not open for pre-order until Oct 16th, critical datapoints to watch would be the magnitude of moderation of lead times into Week 3,” JPM analysts said in a note.
Following this, supply chain feedback on production plan revisions, typically around November, would be the “more definitive signal of demand,” JPM said.
JPM analysis last week showed early delivery times for the 18 series were tracking below last year’s launch, which the bank suggested was due to some consumers waiting for the Duo.
U.S. lead times for the 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max were now tracking 21 days and 28 days, respectively, compared to two and 22 days in the prior week.
In Europe, German lead times for the two models were at 22 days and 29 days, respectively, up from 5 days and 16 days last week.
China remained an outlier, with lead times for the two models tracking 27 days and 33 days, respectively, versus 13 days and 21 days a week ago. But these were still lower than the 30 days and 37 day-lead times seen for the 17 series, although JPM noted that the Pro Max was not available for in-store pickup in China.
A lead time represents the number of days between placing an order for an iPhone and its estimated delivery date. Higher lead times can suggest stronger demand, but can also reflect on supply and production levels.
Apple unveiled the iPhone 18 Pro series earlier in September, and also unveiled its first foldable offering, the Duo. The new line features upgraded specs from a year ago, but also has higher pricing due to rising component costs.
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